Duke @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Duke

6-2 · Power #60

final

Final

Miami

8-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -19.5

✓ MIA W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 17–37 MIA

✓ MIA (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -21

CloseMIA -19.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -21

1.5 → DUKE

CloseMIA -19.5

1.5 pts toward Duke

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -21 · closed MIA -19.5 · moved 1.5 toward DUKEmodel MIA -22

model MIA -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -21

CloseMIA -19.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 19.5-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIA won 53–31; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.7 against an average line of 20; 58.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Very close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–13	L	U50
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	CCU vs TROY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-17	35–28	L	O50
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-18	30–27	L	O52
Close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	31–10	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WW–WW	5-2	71%	2-0	3-0
MIA WLLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	5-2

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUUUO	4-4	50%	6-2
MIA OOOOU	6-1	86%	8-0

Went over in Q3. Of 292 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%
MIA	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	8-1 89%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.0 →+2.8▼ 1.2#59

MIA+9.9 →+20.6▲ 10.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DUKE

Longer bar = better

MIA

#108

Offense

MIA better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#31

+1.5 #3

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

+0.5 #34

67 plays #69

Pace

MIA faster ▶

72 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	DUKE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #89	21.5 #42	MIA
Yards / play	5.01 #121	4.97 #31	MIA
PPA / play	+0.04 #113	+0.05 #43	MIA
Success rate	39% #108	35% #9	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	46.8 #1	18.6 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.76 #1	4.55 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #6	−0.10 #5	Even
Success rate	53% #5	37% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.4 #35	5.1 #122	12.5 #91	4.8 #95	6.4 #86	11.1 #100
MIA allowed	4.5 #56	8.0 #78	12.5 #72	4.3 #35	4.8 #32	9.0 #21

MIA scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	10.5 #9	10.8 #26	21.3 #14	11.8 #5	13.8 #2	25.5 #1
DUKE allowed	4.1 #44	5.1 #23	9.3 #29	4.8 #46	2.9 #6	7.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.