Louisville @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisville

3-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

4-1 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

LOU -7.5

✓ UVA W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 31–22 UVA

✓ LOU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -7

CloseLOU -7.5

Total57.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -7

0.5 → LOU

CloseLOU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open57.5

▼ 5

Close52.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -7 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward LOUmodel LOU -12.5

model LOU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (66 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -7

CloseLOU -7.5

Total57.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 7.5-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 52.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 8.2; 45.1 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	USC @ MINN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	17–24	L	U45.5
Close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	23–0	W	U55
Close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WWWLL	3-2	60%	0-1	3-1
UVA –L–WW	2-1	67%	1-0	—

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOUOO	4-1	80%	3-2
UVA –O–OU	2-1	67%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
UVA	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	7-1 88%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 8–6 UVA LOU leads · 14 games since 1988 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2023	Virginia 24 @ Louisville 31	LOU -20.5	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+14.0▲ 4.4#14

UVA−2.9 →+0.5▲ 3.4#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LOU

Longer bar = better

UVA

#23

Offense

◀ LOU better

#61

#50

Defense

Even

#60

+0.4 #47

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

0.0 #72

65 plays #84

Pace

UVA faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #21	21.6 #49	LOU
Yards / play	7.29 #12	5.59 #78	LOU
PPA / play	+0.24 #34	+0.07 #58	LOU
Success rate	48% #26	39% #54	LOU

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #69	19.6 #37	LOU
Yards / play	6.23 #45	5.15 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #59	+0.08 #67	Even
Success rate	43% #72	38% #42	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	9.6 #20	12.4 #18	22.0 #16	9.8 #17	6.8 #69	16.6 #31
UVA allowed	4.0 #41	7.6 #70	11.6 #62	6.0 #75	4.0 #31	10.0 #39

UVA scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	7.4 #51	10.6 #42	18.0 #42	3.4 #118	7.6 #49	11.0 #102
LOU allowed	8.4 #119	6.8 #56	15.2 #99	1.2 #5	3.2 #16	4.4 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.