Texas @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Texas

6-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

5-2 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

TEX -16.5

✓ VAN W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 35–17 VAN

✓ TEX (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -19

CloseTEX -16.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -19

2.5 → VAN

CloseTEX -16.5

2.5 pts toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -19 · closed TEX -16.5 · moved 2.5 toward VANmodel TEX -22

model TEX -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -19

CloseTEX -16.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 16.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TEX won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 17.7; 60.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5
Very close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Close	UGA @ TENN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-19.5	41–17	W	O55.75
Close	UGA @ AUB 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	27–20	L	O45.5
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Close	ALA @ VAN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-23	35–40	L	O53.5
Loose	OSU @ RUTG 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-19	35–16	P	O42.5
Loose	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX WWLWL	5-2	71%	1-0	5-2
VAN LWWWL	5-2	71%	3-1	4-0

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX OOUUU	3-4	43%	6-1
VAN OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
VAN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+19.1 →+24.4▲ 5.3#2

VAN−6.1 →+2.1▲ 8.2#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TEX

Longer bar = better

VAN

#27

Offense

◀ TEX better

#42

Defense

◀ TEX better

#82

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+0.9 #19

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ TEX faster

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #17	22.1 #51	TEX
Yards / play	6.61 #25	5.62 #83	TEX
PPA / play	+0.23 #28	+0.14 #94	TEX
Success rate	46% #38	44% #101	TEX

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	VAN off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #35	9.7 #1	TEX
Yards / play	5.77 #77	3.74 #1	TEX
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	−0.18 #2	TEX
Success rate	47% #30	35% #9	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #29	12.9 #7	20.9 #17	9.9 #17	8.4 #34	18.3 #11
VAN allowed	3.4 #30	4.1 #15	7.6 #11	7.3 #106	5.9 #55	13.1 #85

VAN scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.1 #69	10.7 #31	16.9 #42	3.9 #108	10.4 #8	14.3 #55
TEX allowed	1.4 #3	5.0 #25	6.4 #5	0.4 #1	2.9 #6	3.3 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.