Georgia @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:49 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

5-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Texas

6-0 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

TEX -4.5

✓ UGA W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 24–29 TEX

✗ TEX (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -3.5

CloseTEX -4.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -3.5

1 → TEX

CloseTEX -4.5

1 pt toward Texas

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -3.5 · closed TEX -4.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -8.5

model TEX -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (103 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -3.5

CloseTEX -4.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 4.5-point home favorite against UGA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 30–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 56.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 5.3; 58.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–24	W	O47
Close	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	23–45	L	O56
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Loose	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Loose	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Loose	OKST vs OU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	37–33	P	O49.75
Loose	PITT vs CLEM 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	27–17	W	U47
Loose	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-7	41–17	W	O48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	—
TEX WWWLW	5-1	83%	3-1	5-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UUOUO	2-4	33%	5-1
TEX OOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
TEX	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+24.2 →+21.5▼ 2.7#3

TEX+19.1 →+26.3▲ 7.2#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UGA

Longer bar = better

TEX

#25

Offense

TEX better ▶

#46

Defense

TEX better ▶

−0.2 #83

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.5 #40

66 plays #76

Pace

TEX faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #38	6.3 #1	TEX
Yards / play	6.88 #16	3.69 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #20	−0.18 #2	Even
Success rate	48% #24	36% #15	Even

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	43.2 #7	17.2 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.20 #11	5.26 #57	TEX
PPA / play	+0.35 #10	+0.10 #72	TEX
Success rate	51% #9	38% #33	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.2 #90	8.3 #71	13.5 #84	10.0 #14	10.0 #17	20.0 #6
TEX allowed	0.5 #2	3.2 #6	3.7 #3	0.5 #1	2.2 #2	2.7 #1

TEX scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	9.3 #18	15.0 #3	24.3 #7	9.0 #21	9.8 #19	18.8 #13
UGA allowed	5.0 #69	3.2 #6	8.2 #23	5.0 #55	4.0 #20	9.0 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.