Buffalo @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #105

final

Final

Ohio

4-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -4.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 20–26 OHIO

✓ OHIO (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -6.5

CloseOHIO -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -6.5

2 → BUFF

CloseOHIO -4.5

2 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -6.5 · closed OHIO -4.5 · moved 2 toward BUFFmodel OHIO -9

model OHIO -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -6.5

CloseOHIO -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 4.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 47–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 4.6; 43 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	9–13	L	U46
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Very close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WWLWL	4-3	57%	1-2	2-3
OHIO LLWLL	3-4	43%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
OHIO UOUOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 232 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
OHIO	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 0–1 OHIO OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 7 2023	Ohio 20 @ Buffalo 10	OHIO -9	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−12.6▼ 0.4#116

OHIO−3.6 →−6.7▼ 3.1#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BUFF

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#109

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#94

#72

Defense

Even

#67

+0.4 #45

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−1.3 #128

63 plays #110

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	BUFF off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #103	24.3 #70	OHIO
Yards / play	4.96 #121	5.33 #58	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.12 #85	Even
Success rate	36% #128	40% #55	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	OHIO off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #111	26.3 #83	BUFF
Yards / play	5.70 #81	5.24 #55	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.11 #81	Even
Success rate	42% #84	41% #67	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.3 #87	2.7 #133	8.0 #126	7.4 #42	7.1 #66	14.6 #50
OHIO allowed	1.7 #7	9.1 #94	10.9 #50	7.6 #108	5.9 #56	13.4 #92

OHIO scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	3.7 #112	7.4 #88	11.1 #101	4.1 #104	6.6 #80	10.7 #102
BUFF allowed	3.9 #41	9.3 #99	13.1 #79	5.9 #73	7.3 #92	13.1 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.