Buffalo @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

4-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

Akron

2-6 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

BUFF -2.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 25–23 AKR

✓ BUFF (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -1

CloseBUFF -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -1

1.5 → BUFF

CloseBUFF -2.5

1.5 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -1 · closed BUFF -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward BUFFmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 46% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -1

CloseBUFF -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 2.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 41–30; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 3.3; 45.1 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ODU @ FIU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	47–24	W	O50
Very close	UTEP @ USM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.25	26–13	W	U46.25
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	17–24	L	U42
Very close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLWLL	4-4	50%	1-3	2-0
AKR LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-1	3-4

Venue/role: BUFF away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOOOO	5-3	63%	4-4
AKR OUUOU	5-3	63%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 281 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
AKR	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 1–0 AKR BUFF leads · 1 game since 2023 · BUFF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Buffalo 13 @ Akron 10	AKR -3	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−14.2▼ 2.0#119

AKR−13.9 →−16.6▼ 2.7#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUFF

Longer bar = better

AKR

#109

Offense

Even

#119

#88

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#114

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−0.8 #113

64 plays #98

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #108	35.4 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #119	6.14 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #87	+0.19 #112	BUFF
Success rate	37% #123	46% #114	Even

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	AKR off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #129	28.9 #98	BUFF
Yards / play	5.01 #118	5.54 #72	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.02 #121	+0.16 #98	BUFF
Success rate	39% #107	42% #85	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.6 #97	3.6 #132	8.3 #126	7.3 #47	6.3 #88	13.5 #65
AKR allowed	6.6 #102	9.9 #113	16.5 #110	8.5 #122	10.4 #128	18.9 #130

AKR scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.1 #84	6.9 #97	12.0 #99	2.1 #127	3.4 #132	5.5 #133
BUFF allowed	3.8 #34	10.8 #120	14.5 #89	6.3 #81	8.1 #103	14.4 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.