UL Monroe @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-1 · Power #115

▲ winner

Final

Troy

1-3 · Power #97

final

Closing spread

TROY -6.5

✓ ULM W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 19–26 TROY

✗ TROY (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -8.5

CloseTROY -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -8.5

2 → ULM

CloseTROY -6.5

2 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -8.5 · closed TROY -6.5 · moved 2 toward ULMmodel TROY -10

model TROY -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (89 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -8.5

CloseTROY -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 6.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 13–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 44.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 5.6; 38.1 points a game (usually 53.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	27–13	W	U42.5
Close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-7	27–10	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	1-1
TROY LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
TROY OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
TROY	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ULM 8–11 TROY TROY leads · 19 games since 1995 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Troy 45 @ UL Monroe 14	TROY -21.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.3 →−13.3▲ 4.0#121

TROY+2.8 →−6.6▼ 9.4#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ULM

Longer bar = better

TROY

#114

Offense

TROY better ▶

#75

#87

Defense

◀ ULM better

#112

+1.3 #13

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

−0.5 #98

57 plays #131

Pace

Even

58 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #114	29.0 #98	Even
Yards / play	4.37 #131	6.28 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.22 #111	Even
Success rate	38% #116	48% #120	Even

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #99	23.7 #74	ULM
Yards / play	6.07 #68	5.18 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #46	+0.14 #91	TROY
Success rate	42% #88	48% #121	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.3 #115	6.7 #99	10.0 #109	5.3 #88	6.3 #78	11.7 #90
TROY allowed	3.3 #34	8.3 #87	11.5 #65	10.5 #129	7.0 #88	17.5 #123

TROY scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.5 #109	8.8 #64	12.3 #93	5.0 #96	7.3 #55	12.3 #78
ULM allowed	8.0 #114	5.7 #42	13.7 #87	5.3 #68	4.7 #55	10.0 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.