Eastern Michigan @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Wed, Nov 13, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

5-4 · Power #120

final

Final

Ohio

6-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -10.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 19–30 OHIO

✓ OHIO (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -8

CloseOHIO -10.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -8

2.5 → OHIO

CloseOHIO -10.5

2.5 pts toward Ohio

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -8 · closed OHIO -10.5 · moved 2.5 toward OHIOmodel OHIO -9.5

model OHIO -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 41% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -8

CloseOHIO -10.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 10.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 35–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 11.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Very close	BGSU vs ODU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-11	27–30	L	O51.5
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Very close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-13	44–7	W	P51
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Close	MRSH vs ULM 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	28–23	L	O48
Close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-11.5	20–33	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLWLW	7-2	78%	3-1	4-1
OHIO WLLWW	5-4	56%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OOOUO	5-4	56%	5-4
OHIO UOOOU	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
OHIO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

EMU 12–22 OHIO (1 tied) OHIO leads · 35 games since 1976 · OHIO has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−13.3 →−10.9▲ 2.4#110

OHIO−3.6 →−4.7▼ 1.1#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

EMU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#90

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#65

#89

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#42

+0.8 #24

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

−0.9 #124

78 plays #4

Pace

◀ EMU faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	EMU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #58	20.7 #29	OHIO
Yards / play	5.03 #119	5.04 #34	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	+0.09 #64	OHIO
Success rate	43% #76	39% #39	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #82	26.3 #78	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #58	6.29 #115	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.14 #64	+0.07 #51	Even
Success rate	44% #57	46% #113	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	6.4 #53	6.3 #111	12.8 #87	7.7 #36	8.1 #39	15.8 #32
OHIO allowed	1.3 #2	8.2 #80	9.6 #26	6.6 #88	4.6 #21	11.1 #49

OHIO scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.3 #99	9.2 #51	13.6 #72	5.8 #75	7.4 #54	13.2 #65
EMU allowed	3.2 #24	9.6 #106	12.8 #71	4.0 #29	9.2 #118	13.2 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.