UCLA @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Fri, Nov 15, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

UCLA

4-5 · Power #48

final

Final

Washington

5-5 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -5.5

✓ WASH W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 21–27 WASH

✓ WASH (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -3.5

CloseWASH -5.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -3.5

2 → WASH

CloseWASH -5.5

2 pts toward Washington

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -3.5 · closed WASH -5.5 · moved 2 toward WASHmodel WASH -9

model WASH -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (94 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -3.5

CloseWASH -5.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 5.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 31–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 5.8; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Close	COLO vs MINN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	0–30	L	U49
Close	WASH vs CAL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–24	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WLWWW	5-3	63%	3-1	5-2
WASH WLLWL	3-5	38%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UUOOU	3-5	38%	4-5
WASH OOUUU	2-6	25%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 302 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
WASH	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+7.7 →+3.6▼ 4.1#55

WASH+12.9 →+9.3▼ 3.6#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UCLA

Longer bar = better

WASH

#111

Offense

WASH better ▶

#51

#90

Defense

WASH better ▶

#39

−0.6 #109

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+0.3 #51

59 plays #132

Pace

WASH faster ▶

66 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	UCLA off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #128	20.6 #29	WASH
Yards / play	5.43 #97	4.88 #23	WASH
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.03 #35	WASH
Success rate	39% #112	42% #69	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #112	26.7 #83	UCLA
Yards / play	6.18 #45	5.50 #66	WASH
PPA / play	+0.21 #32	+0.14 #87	WASH
Success rate	48% #16	47% #124	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.3 #119	7.6 #84	10.9 #109	4.1 #109	3.8 #132	7.9 #126
WASH allowed	3.4 #29	8.7 #92	12.1 #67	4.4 #38	4.1 #13	8.5 #14

WASH scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.4 #117	8.5 #65	11.9 #99	4.6 #100	5.3 #112	9.9 #113
UCLA allowed	5.8 #83	7.2 #60	13.0 #74	6.3 #87	7.3 #90	13.7 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.