Ohio @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Wed, Nov 20, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

7-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Toledo

7-3 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

OHIO -0.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 24–24 TOL

✓ OHIO (50%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -2

CloseOHIO -0.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -2

2.5 → OHIO

CloseOHIO -0.5

2.5 pts toward Ohio

Total

Open50.5

▼ 5

Close45.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -2 · closed OHIO -0.5 · moved 2.5 toward OHIOmodel TOL -1.5

model TOL -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 51% (91 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -2

CloseOHIO -0.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 0.5-point road favorite at TOL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 24–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 1.9; 46.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST @ NMSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-0.25	17–20	L	U48.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	19–47	L	O51.5
Close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	27–24	W	O44
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	TXST @ CCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.75	23–31	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO LLWWW	6-4	60%	2-3	4-2
TOL LWLLW	5-5	50%	3-2	2-0

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; TOL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OOOUU	5-5	50%	7-3
TOL OUOOU	7-3	70%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
TOL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.6 →−3.4▲ 0.2#81

TOL−0.4 →−4.4▼ 4.0#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

OHIO

Longer bar = better

TOL

#56

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#87

#34

Defense

Even

#34

−0.5 #102

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+0.3 #52

64 plays #97

Pace

TOL faster ▶

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	OHIO off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #73	21.1 #37	TOL
Yards / play	6.05 #52	4.89 #27	TOL
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.03 #33	TOL
Success rate	45% #43	39% #38	Even

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	TOL off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #53	19.6 #24	OHIO
Yards / play	5.50 #88	4.95 #31	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.06 #47	OHIO
Success rate	40% #104	38% #32	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	3.9 #106	9.7 #43	13.6 #72	5.9 #70	8.1 #39	14.0 #59
TOL allowed	4.4 #47	4.9 #15	9.3 #24	4.8 #44	7.0 #79	11.8 #59

TOL scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.3 #56	10.5 #29	16.8 #36	6.1 #65	7.0 #70	13.1 #70
OHIO allowed	1.2 #1	8.1 #79	9.3 #24	5.9 #75	4.4 #17	10.3 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.