Bowling Green @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

6-4 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

3-7 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

BGSU -12.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 33–20 BALL

✓ BGSU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -11.5

CloseBGSU -12.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -11.5

1 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -12.5

1 pt toward Bowling Green

Total

Open58.5

▼ 4

Close54.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -11.5 · closed BGSU -12.5 · moved 1 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -14.5

model BGSU -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 41% (44 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (100 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -11.5

CloseBGSU -12.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 12.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 38–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 12.3; 57.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ BALL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13	27–21	L	P48
Very close	MRSH @ USM 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	37–3	W	U53.5
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Very close	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	41–7	W	U56
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	35–0	W	U57
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	49–17	W	O50
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LLWLW	4-5	44%	2-2	2-5
BALL LWWWW	7-2	78%	4-0	6-1

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UUOUU	3-6	33%	6-4
BALL OUOUO	7-2	78%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
BALL	3-7 30%	7-2 78%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BGSU 21–10 BALL (1 tied) BGSU leads · 32 games since 1968 · BALL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2023	Ball State 21 @ Bowling Green 24	BGSU -5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−5.6 →−1.0▲ 4.6#71

BALL−11.2 →−16.5▼ 5.3#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BGSU

Longer bar = better

BALL

#61

Offense

◀ BGSU better

#83

#39

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#126

+0.2 #57

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #56

63 plays #108

Pace

BALL faster ▶

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #79	40.1 #134	BGSU
Yards / play	6.01 #54	7.08 #135	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.23 #119	BGSU
Success rate	44% #60	46% #117	BGSU

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	BALL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #81	20.2 #29	BGSU
Yards / play	5.24 #111	5.30 #48	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.07 #50	BGSU
Success rate	44% #46	38% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	8.1 #23	8.5 #59	16.6 #37	5.2 #85	5.3 #113	10.5 #110
BALL allowed	8.4 #124	10.7 #119	19.1 #122	6.1 #84	14.3 #134	20.4 #133

BALL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.9 #40	7.0 #96	13.9 #70	5.7 #73	7.1 #68	12.8 #76
BGSU allowed	5.1 #66	5.8 #28	10.9 #39	3.3 #15	6.0 #58	9.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.