Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphgusts 10Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville State

5-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

3-5 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

JXST -9.5

✓ LT W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 32–23 LT

✓ JXST (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -10.5

CloseJXST -9.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -10.5

1 → LT

CloseJXST -9.5

1 pt toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -10.5 · closed JXST -9.5 · moved 1 toward LTmodel JXST -7.5

model JXST -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 50% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (95 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -10.5

CloseJXST -9.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 9.5-point road favorite at LT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 44–37; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 9.4; 54.2 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Very close	FRES @ SJSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	40–9	W	U52.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	UTSA @ UTEP 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	44–23	W	O53
Very close	WKU @ JXST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	17–20	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWWWW	5-3	63%	2-2	4-2
LT LWLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	2-0

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; LT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOOUU	5-3	63%	5-3
LT UOOUU	3-4	43%	3-5

Went over in Q3. Of 302 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%
LT	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JXST 1–0 LT JXST leads · 1 game since 2023 · JXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Louisiana Tech 17 @ Jacksonville State 56	JXST -10	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−4.5 →−3.3▲ 1.2#81

LT−10.2 →−12.3▼ 2.1#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

JXST

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

◀ JXST better

#125

#85

Defense

LT better ▶

#14

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.9 #120

66 plays #84

Pace

LT faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #11	20.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.08 #7	4.70 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #16	−0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	47% #20	34% #4	Even

When LT has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	LT off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #118	28.3 #94	JXST
Yards / play	4.90 #127	5.76 #85	JXST
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.08 #56	JXST
Success rate	37% #125	45% #106	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.4 #39	11.0 #22	18.4 #27	11.1 #7	8.8 #26	19.9 #5
LT allowed	5.9 #86	2.4 #3	8.3 #12	6.5 #89	3.8 #10	10.3 #35

LT scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.0 #107	8.1 #72	12.1 #96	3.4 #119	5.0 #119	8.4 #124
JXST allowed	8.5 #126	9.1 #103	17.6 #116	2.9 #11	7.0 #84	9.9 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.