Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

3-6 · Power #112

▲ winner

Final

Western Kentucky

7-2 · Power #103

final

Closing spread

WKU -11.5

✓ LT W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 20–31 WKU

✗ WKU (79%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -13.5

CloseWKU -11.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -13.5

2 → LT

CloseWKU -11.5

2 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -13.5 · closed WKU -11.5 · moved 2 toward LTmodel WKU -11.5 matches the line

model WKU -11.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 37% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -13.5

CloseWKU -11.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as an 11.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 12–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 10.9; 45.8 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	33–17	W	U54.5
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Very close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	MRSH vs ULM 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	28–23	L	O48
Close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WLLWW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-0
WKU WWWLL	6-3	67%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OOUUO	4-4	50%	3-6
WKU UOUUO	4-5	44%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
WKU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LT 0–1 WKU WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2023	Western Kentucky 35 @ Louisiana Tech 28	WKU -8	LT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−12.1▼ 1.9#114

WKU−5.2 →−4.2▲ 1.0#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

WKU

#119

Offense

WKU better ▶

#49

#22

Defense

◀ LT better

#66

−0.7 #114

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+0.6 #30

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ LT faster

67 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	LT off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #106	22.1 #45	WKU
Yards / play	5.01 #119	5.75 #81	WKU
PPA / play	−0.04 #127	+0.08 #60	WKU
Success rate	37% #122	42% #78	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	WKU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #53	22.7 #53	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #51	4.66 #10	LT
PPA / play	+0.18 #48	−0.01 #18	LT
Success rate	45% #44	35% #6	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LT scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.3 #99	8.8 #57	13.1 #82	4.0 #111	5.2 #115	9.2 #118
WKU allowed	4.7 #54	6.2 #44	10.9 #46	6.6 #89	4.7 #23	11.2 #53

WKU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	9.7 #11	7.4 #89	17.1 #38	4.8 #96	8.4 #31	13.2 #67
LT allowed	6.0 #88	4.4 #13	10.4 #35	5.8 #71	4.3 #16	10.1 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.