App State @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Thu, Nov 7, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Coastal Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

App State

4-4 · Power #99

final

Final

Coastal Carolina

4-4 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -1.5

✓ CCU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 31–31 CCU

✗ APP (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCCU -1

CloseAPP -1.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCCU -1

2.5 → APP

CloseAPP -1.5

2.5 pts toward App State

Total

Open61.5

▲ 1

Close62.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CCU -1 · closed APP -1.5 · moved 2.5 toward APPmodel CCU -4

model CCU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 52% (82 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (86 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCCU -1

CloseAPP -1.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 1.5-point road favorite at CCU, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 38–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 62 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 56%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 8.2 against an average line of 2.8; 57 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HAW @ UNM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	21–42	L	O60
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	M-OH @ EMU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	12–13	L	U58.5
Close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–44	L	O62
Close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Close	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-3	29–52	L	O64.5
Close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Close	USF @ UAB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-3	35–56	L	O68.5
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–27	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP –LWLW	3-4	43%	2-2	0-2
CCU LWLLL	3-5	38%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: APP away, as favorite; CCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP –OUUU	2-5	29%	4-4
CCU OOUOO	6-2	75%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%
CCU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

APP 8–5 CCU APP leads · 13 games since 2005 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 10 2023	Coastal Carolina 27 @ App State 24	APP -4.5	CCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−0.7 →−8.5▼ 7.8#101

CCU−2.5 →−7.0▼ 4.5#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

APP

Longer bar = better

CCU

#67

Offense

Even

#63

#129

Defense

CCU better ▶

#109

−1.0 #127

Turnovers

CCU better ▶

+0.5 #39

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ APP faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #79	32.4 #115	APP
Yards / play	6.09 #50	6.11 #107	APP
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.17 #103	APP
Success rate	43% #73	46% #111	APP

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #45	34.4 #120	CCU
Yards / play	6.05 #52	6.86 #132	CCU
PPA / play	+0.16 #59	+0.31 #134	CCU
Success rate	41% #96	51% #131	CCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

APP scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.8 #126	11.5 #18	14.3 #66	5.6 #78	7.0 #68	12.6 #77
CCU allowed	6.0 #86	12.1 #127	18.1 #119	5.6 #64	8.6 #112	14.3 #99

CCU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	8.6 #23	8.6 #61	17.3 #38	8.5 #26	5.1 #115	13.6 #61
APP allowed	9.8 #132	13.4 #130	23.1 #131	6.1 #83	5.1 #44	11.3 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.