Coastal Carolina @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

5-4 · Power #101

final

Final

Marshall

6-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -7.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 24–32 MRSH

✓ MRSH (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -9

CloseMRSH -7.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -9

1.5 → CCU

CloseMRSH -7.5

1.5 pts toward Coastal Carolina

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -9 · closed MRSH -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward CCUmodel MRSH -6.5

model MRSH -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (108 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -9

CloseMRSH -7.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 7.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 31–19; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 6.8; 58.7 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Very close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5
Very close	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	26–34	L	U61.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU WLLLW	4-5	44%	1-3	2-3
MRSH WWWLW	8-1	89%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: CCU away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU OUOOU	6-3	67%	5-4
MRSH OUOOU	4-5	44%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MRSH	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CCU 1–0 MRSH CCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Marshall 6 @ Coastal Carolina 34	MRSH -3.5	CCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−2.5 →−6.3▼ 3.8#95

MRSH−5.5 →−2.8▲ 2.7#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CCU

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#58

Offense

Even

#50

#103

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#60

+0.8 #25

Turnovers

◀ CCU better

+0.4 #40

63 plays #105

Pace

Even

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Even matchup

	CCU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #41	23.3 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #54	5.40 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #50	+0.09 #63	Even
Success rate	42% #86	41% #56	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #51	31.4 #106	MRSH
Yards / play	6.18 #46	6.01 #101	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	+0.15 #90	MRSH
Success rate	44% #52	45% #113	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	9.2 #15	8.0 #74	17.2 #35	9.1 #16	5.3 #109	14.4 #51
MRSH allowed	3.3 #27	6.4 #45	9.8 #30	6.6 #91	7.0 #81	13.6 #87

MRSH scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	6.1 #65	11.1 #19	17.2 #35	5.7 #81	7.7 #51	13.3 #65
CCU allowed	5.3 #68	11.9 #125	17.2 #113	5.0 #51	9.2 #119	14.2 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.