Texas State @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas State

4-4 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

5-3 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

TXST -9.5

✓ TXST W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 30–20 ULM

✓ TXST (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -7.5

CloseTXST -9.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -7.5

2 → TXST

CloseTXST -9.5

2 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -7.5 · closed TXST -9.5 · moved 2 toward TXSTmodel TXST -10.5

model TXST -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 50% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -7.5

CloseTXST -9.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 9.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 10.2; 52.7 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	49–17	W	O50
Very close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	TOL @ EMU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	29–28	L	O54.5
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-11.5	31–10	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LWWLL	3-4	43%	1-1	3-4
ULM WWWLW	6-2	75%	4-0	4-2

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OUUUU	3-4	43%	4-4
ULM UUOOO	4-4	50%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 315 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
ULM	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TXST 8–6 ULM TXST leads · 14 games since 2000 · TXST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	UL Monroe 20 @ Texas State 21	TXST -19.5	ULM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−3.2 →+2.1▲ 5.3#61

ULM−17.3 →−9.8▲ 7.5#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TXST

Longer bar = better

ULM

#34

Offense

◀ TXST better

#109

#45

Defense

◀ TXST better

#74

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+0.3 #54

72 plays #15

Pace

◀ TXST faster

58 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #38	24.3 #67	TXST
Yards / play	6.23 #45	5.41 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.07 #50	Even
Success rate	48% #16	46% #119	TXST

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	ULM off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #112	22.6 #54	TXST
Yards / play	5.28 #108	5.08 #37	TXST
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	+0.08 #55	TXST
Success rate	36% #128	39% #35	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	11.5 #3	8.1 #71	19.6 #18	7.9 #35	5.0 #118	12.9 #72
ULM allowed	6.8 #104	4.8 #16	11.5 #59	5.5 #62	7.3 #89	12.8 #79

ULM scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.3 #101	7.3 #94	11.5 #103	2.8 #126	7.9 #49	10.6 #107
TXST allowed	3.4 #26	8.1 #76	11.5 #59	5.9 #76	5.3 #44	11.1 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.