Northwestern @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

3-5 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-6 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

PUR -3.5

✓ NU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 23–25 PUR

✗ PUR (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -2

ClosePUR -3.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -2

5.5 → PUR

ClosePUR -3.5

5.5 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -2 · closed PUR -3.5 · moved 5.5 toward PURmodel NU -4.5

model NU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (171 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 52% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -2

ClosePUR -3.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PUR as a 3.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NU won 26–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3; 48.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Close	WYO vs SDSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	24–27	L	O43
Loose	MASS vs CONN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	18–31	L	U50.75
Loose	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & total	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Loose	FIU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	14–27	L	U43
Loose	HAW vs NEV 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	34–13	W	O42
Loose	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Loose	SJSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–6	W	U48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU –LWLL	2-5	29%	1-1	1-3
PUR LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-0

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU –OOUO	4-3	57%	3-5
PUR OUOOU	4-3	57%	1-6

Went over in OT. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
PUR	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 1–0 PUR NU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Purdue 15 @ Northwestern 23	NU -2.5	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU0.0 →−3.0▼ 3.0#79

PUR+1.0 →−9.9▼ 10.9#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

PUR

#129

Offense

PUR better ▶

#88

#62

Defense

◀ NU better

#129

+0.4 #48

Turnovers

◀ NU better

−0.9 #118

59 plays #131

Pace

Even

55 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #126	38.4 #131	Even
Yards / play	4.60 #129	6.83 #129	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #131	+0.34 #135	Even
Success rate	36% #128	47% #119	Even

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	PUR off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #121	22.1 #53	NU
Yards / play	6.11 #50	5.23 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	+0.05 #45	NU
Success rate	42% #84	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	2.5 #126	5.4 #119	7.9 #130	3.8 #111	5.9 #96	9.6 #114
PUR allowed	8.4 #124	9.4 #103	17.9 #119	6.9 #100	12.7 #132	19.6 #132

PUR scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.0 #134	4.3 #127	5.3 #134	5.9 #76	8.3 #34	14.1 #56
NU allowed	3.4 #25	7.1 #63	10.5 #42	5.6 #63	4.4 #23	10.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.