Northwestern @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

3-4 · Power #83

final

Final

Iowa

4-3 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -16.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 12–27 IOWA

✓ IOWA (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -15.5

CloseIOWA -16.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -15.5

1 → IOWA

CloseIOWA -16.5

1 pt toward Iowa

Total

Open36.5

▲ 1

Close37.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -15.5 · closed IOWA -16.5 · moved 1 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -13.5

model IOWA -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 42% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (71 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -15.5

CloseIOWA -16.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 16.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IOWA won 40–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 37.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 14.7; 43.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	IOWA vs MSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	26–16	L	O36.5
Very close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-17	31–3	W	U41
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	IOWA vs ILL 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-12	33–23	L	O38.25
Close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-18	20–21	L	P41
Close	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Close	NCST vs VT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13.25	22–21	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU L–LWL	2-4	33%	1-0	1-2
IOWA LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU U–OOU	3-3	50%	3-4
IOWA OOUOO	5-1	83%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 58 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–41.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
IOWA	5-5 50%	2-6 25%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 28–55 IOWA (3 tied) IOWA leads · 86 games since 1897 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Iowa 10 @ Northwestern 7	IOWA -6	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU0.0 →−2.0▼ 2.0#77

IOWA+2.5 →+7.7▲ 5.2#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#126

Offense

IOWA better ▶

#73

#56

Defense

Even

#58

+0.7 #28

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #21

60 plays #125

Pace

Even

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	NU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #124	19.7 #31	IOWA
Yards / play	4.76 #129	5.30 #57	IOWA
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.07 #60	IOWA
Success rate	36% #124	42% #84	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #74	19.6 #29	NU
Yards / play	5.84 #68	5.20 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.04 #40	NU
Success rate	43% #78	44% #106	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	2.9 #124	5.1 #120	8.0 #128	4.3 #103	5.7 #95	10.0 #111
IOWA allowed	1.9 #8	6.3 #44	8.1 #18	7.0 #101	4.6 #31	11.6 #60

IOWA scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.4 #115	4.6 #124	8.0 #128	9.6 #18	10.3 #13	19.9 #5
NU allowed	3.4 #30	6.9 #57	10.3 #44	2.4 #8	5.0 #39	7.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.