Penn State @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Penn State

6-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

5-2 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

PSU -6.5

✓ PSU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 26–20 WIS

✓ PSU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -6.5

ClosePSU -6.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -6.5

no move

ClosePSU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -6.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -7.5

model PSU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 56% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -6.5

ClosePSU -6.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 28–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 6.6; 50.9 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	ISU @ KSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	33–20	W	O51
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-7	26–16	W	U48
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	WISC @ MINN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	13–23	L	U39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU L–LLL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-4
WIS LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU O–UUO	2-3	40%	6-0
WIS OOOOU	4-3	57%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%
WIS	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+18.8 →+18.3▼ 0.5#10

WIS+5.7 →+8.9▲ 3.2#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

PSU

Longer bar = better

WIS

#14

Offense

◀ PSU better

#55

#12

Defense

◀ PSU better

#39

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.4 #98

65 plays #83

Pace

WIS faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #28	17.6 #18	Even
Yards / play	7.21 #8	5.04 #36	PSU
PPA / play	+0.29 #13	+0.11 #78	PSU
Success rate	52% #6	37% #22	Even

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	WIS off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #66	14.5 #9	PSU
Yards / play	5.83 #69	4.51 #12	PSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #61	0.00 #21	PSU
Success rate	47% #23	34% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.0 #107	11.8 #20	15.8 #51	9.8 #17	8.0 #41	17.8 #18
WIS allowed	2.0 #8	4.7 #18	6.7 #5	5.9 #69	5.0 #38	10.9 #45

WIS scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	7.4 #34	6.9 #100	14.3 #65	7.9 #32	6.9 #77	14.7 #49
PSU allowed	4.0 #41	6.0 #41	10.0 #35	0.5 #1	4.0 #18	4.5 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.