Illinois @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F19 mphgusts 42DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Illinois

7-3 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

6-4 · Power #51

final

Closing spread

RUTG -2.5

✓ ILL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 22–24 RUTG

✗ RUTG (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -1.5

CloseRUTG -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -1.5

1 → RUTG

CloseRUTG -2.5

1 pt toward Rutgers

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -1.5 · closed RUTG -2.5 · moved 1 toward RUTGmodel RUTG -2

model RUTG -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (190 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (99 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -1.5

CloseRUTG -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 2.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 47.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 2.9; 44.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	10–24	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LWLLW	6-4	60%	2-1	4-2
RUTG LLLWW	5-5	50%	3-3	2-3

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OUUUO	3-7	30%	7-3
RUTG OOOOU	6-4	60%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 311 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
RUTG	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.5 →+3.4▲ 3.9#55

RUTG+2.4 →+2.5▲ 0.1#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ILL

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#60

Offense

◀ ILL better

#86

#79

Defense

Even

#92

+0.4 #44

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #46

63 plays #109

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

69 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #80	23.4 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #77	5.98 #102	ILL
PPA / play	+0.23 #24	+0.16 #101	ILL
Success rate	44% #57	45% #106	ILL

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #88	20.6 #32	ILL
Yards / play	5.52 #86	5.63 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	+0.15 #95	Even
Success rate	42% #86	46% #118	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	6.8 #44	7.7 #78	14.5 #59	4.4 #103	6.8 #73	11.2 #102
RUTG allowed	5.7 #84	5.9 #32	11.6 #54	6.3 #89	5.5 #43	11.8 #59

RUTG scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.5 #95	7.3 #88	11.8 #100	5.9 #70	8.6 #27	14.5 #51
ILL allowed	4.3 #48	6.4 #44	10.7 #39	4.1 #31	5.2 #38	9.3 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.