Northwestern @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northwestern

4-6 · Power #83

final

Final

Michigan

5-5 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -10.5

✓ MICH W

Total

34.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 12–23 MICH

✓ MICH (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -12

CloseMICH -10.5

Total38.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -12

1.5 → NU

CloseMICH -10.5

1.5 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open38.5

▼ 4

Close34.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -12 · closed MICH -10.5 · moved 1.5 toward NUmodel MICH -12.5

model MICH -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 40% (89 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (119 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -12

CloseMICH -10.5

Total38.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 10.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 50–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 34.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 9.5; 41.4 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs NU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	17–9	L	U40
Close	UTAH vs ASU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	55–3	W	O39
Close	NEB vs UCLA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–27	L	O38.5
Close	NCST vs VT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-13.25	22–21	L	O39
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	M-OH vs BUFF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	23–10	W	U37
Close	WIS vs IOWA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	6–15	L	U33.5
Close	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–14	W	O43
Close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	27–21	L	O41
Close	IOWA vs MSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-12	26–16	L	O36.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WLLWW	4-5	44%	2-1	3-3
MICH LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-3	1-2

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OUOOU	5-4	56%	4-6
MICH OUOOU	6-2	75%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 19 earlier overs in games with totals 30.5–38.5, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
MICH	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU0.0 →−2.7▼ 2.7#77

MICH+21.1 →+5.7▼ 15.4#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

MICH

#128

Offense

MICH better ▶

#114

#69

Defense

Even

#56

+0.1 #63

Turnovers

◀ NU better

−0.5 #106

61 plays #125

Pace

Even

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	NU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #129	23.0 #55	MICH
Yards / play	4.71 #131	5.15 #37	MICH
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.14 #86	MICH
Success rate	37% #126	40% #46	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	MICH off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #121	22.8 #52	NU
Yards / play	4.83 #128	5.41 #61	NU
PPA / play	+0.04 #113	+0.09 #62	NU
Success rate	42% #92	44% #99	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.0 #125	5.7 #122	8.7 #125	3.0 #126	5.0 #119	8.0 #126
MICH allowed	3.8 #35	7.7 #72	11.5 #52	3.5 #18	8.0 #102	11.5 #55

MICH scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.8 #110	7.0 #96	10.8 #110	4.2 #110	5.4 #112	9.6 #117
NU allowed	3.0 #17	8.5 #89	11.5 #52	5.8 #74	4.2 #16	10.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.