Stanford @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F9 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Stanford

3-7 · Power #96

final

Final

California

5-5 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -15.5

✓ STAN W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 17–33 CAL

✓ CAL (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -14.5

CloseCAL -15.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -14.5

1 → CAL

CloseCAL -15.5

1 pt toward California

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -14.5 · closed CAL -15.5 · moved 1 toward CALmodel CAL -16.5

model CAL -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 47% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (103 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -14.5

CloseCAL -15.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 15.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.7 against an average line of 15.1; 45.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Very close	SC vs VAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	47–6	W	U53.5
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Very close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LLLLW	4-6	40%	1-3	3-6
CAL WLWWL	6-4	60%	3-3	3-3

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OUUOO	4-6	40%	3-7
CAL UOOOO	5-5	50%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

STAN 54–45 CAL (6 tied) STAN leads · 105 games since 1918 · STAN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	California 27 @ Stanford 15	CAL -6.5	CAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−5.0 →−7.0▼ 2.0#100

CAL+2.0 →+5.4▲ 3.4#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

STAN

Longer bar = better

CAL

#117

Offense

CAL better ▶

#64

#120

Defense

CAL better ▶

#46

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+1.4 #3

67 plays #75

Pace

CAL faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	STAN off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #110	20.7 #33	CAL
Yards / play	4.88 #127	4.99 #33	CAL
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	+0.08 #57	CAL
Success rate	40% #103	41% #59	CAL

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #61	34.6 #121	CAL
Yards / play	5.71 #72	6.52 #122	CAL
PPA / play	+0.16 #59	+0.23 #118	CAL
Success rate	44% #64	47% #120	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.5 #95	6.4 #108	10.9 #107	4.9 #94	6.4 #83	11.3 #101
CAL allowed	5.3 #78	5.5 #25	10.8 #39	1.8 #3	8.1 #107	9.9 #28

CAL scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.5 #48	8.6 #60	15.1 #56	7.5 #40	5.7 #106	13.2 #70
STAN allowed	8.7 #126	9.9 #108	18.6 #122	8.3 #121	7.7 #94	16.0 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.