Utah @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Utah

4-7 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

UCF

4-7 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

UCF -9.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 18–28 UCF

✗ UCF (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -8.5

CloseUCF -9.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -8.5

1 → UCF

CloseUCF -9.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open49.5

▼ 4

Close45.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -8.5 · closed UCF -9.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel UCF -9.5 matches the line

model UCF -9.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 43% (93 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -8.5

CloseUCF -9.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 9.5-point home favorite against UTAH, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 28–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 9.1; 50.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	USA vs MRSH 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	28–0	W	U45
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-7	3–7	L	U46
Close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Close	COLO vs UTAH 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-13.5	49–24	W	O43.5
Close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6	37–30	W	O47
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLWLW	4-7	36%	1-4	2-1
UCF WLWLL	5-6	45%	3-3	3-5

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUOOO	4-7	36%	4-7
UCF OOOOU	8-3	73%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UCF	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+6.4 →+3.0▼ 3.4#57

UCF+6.5 →+8.0▲ 1.5#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UTAH

Longer bar = better

UCF

#114

Offense

UCF better ▶

#29

#22

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#67

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #100

64 plays #94

Pace

UCF faster ▶

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	UTAH off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #104	26.8 #81	UCF
Yards / play	5.31 #107	5.26 #45	UCF
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.13 #86	UCF
Success rate	37% #124	41% #54	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #41	21.3 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.73 #11	5.12 #39	UCF
PPA / play	+0.19 #39	−0.01 #13	UTAH
Success rate	47% #23	35% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	4.2 #104	9.2 #47	13.4 #80	4.5 #106	5.4 #112	9.8 #117
UCF allowed	7.3 #112	8.9 #94	16.2 #111	6.4 #87	4.3 #13	10.6 #38

UCF scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	5.3 #77	10.2 #35	15.5 #46	9.7 #12	6.7 #76	16.5 #25
UTAH allowed	3.9 #36	5.9 #28	9.8 #26	4.5 #40	7.0 #73	11.5 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.