California vs UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Art of Sport LA Bowl, 2024)

Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTArt of Sport LA Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff70°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

California

6-6 · Power #55

final

Final

UNLV

10-3 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -3.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 25–28 UNLV

✓ UNLV (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -1.5

CloseUNLV -3.5

Total51.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -1.5

5 → UNLV

CloseUNLV -3.5

5 pts toward UNLV

Total

Open51.5

▼ 7

Close44.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -1.5 · closed UNLV -3.5 · moved 5 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -2.5

model UNLV -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 41% (40 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -1.5

CloseUNLV -3.5

Total51.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against CAL, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 24–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 4.3; 41.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Close	ARMY vs MIZ 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–22	L	U54
Close	APP vs M-OH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	13–9	L	U40.75
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Loose	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & rest	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Loose	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Loose	ODU vs WKU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-4	35–38	L	O48.75
Loose	HOU vs AUB 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & spread	-1.25	17–13	W	U49.25
Loose	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	38–24	W	O48
Loose	LOU vs FSU 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & spread	-1.5	6–16	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CAL WWLLL	6-6	50%	—	3-2
UNLV LWWWL	7-5	58%	—	6-3

Venue/role: CAL neutral, as underdog; UNLV neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OOOUU	5-7	42%	6-6
UNLV OOUUU	6-6	50%	10-3

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UNLV	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+2.0 →+3.8▲ 1.8#51

UNLV−2.0 →+5.9▲ 7.9#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CAL

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#81

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#39

#46

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#30

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #9

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ CAL faster

67 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	CAL off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #84	21.9 #37	UNLV
Yards / play	5.56 #84	5.12 #35	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.03 #29	UNLV
Success rate	42% #80	38% #18	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #14	22.2 #41	UNLV
Yards / play	6.35 #29	5.00 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #33	+0.08 #57	UNLV
Success rate	42% #78	41% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.4 #75	7.8 #78	13.2 #81	6.8 #55	6.2 #89	12.9 #76
UNLV allowed	4.8 #55	6.4 #40	11.2 #46	4.8 #45	5.5 #42	10.3 #34

UNLV scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.5 #14	11.0 #21	19.5 #15	8.0 #25	8.5 #37	16.5 #22
CAL allowed	6.8 #102	5.2 #16	11.9 #53	2.1 #3	8.2 #102	10.3 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.