Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 2024)

Thu, Dec 19, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTR+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Neutral site

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Georgia Southern

8-4 · Power #90

final

Final

Sam Houston

9-3 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -3.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 27–24 SHSU

✗ GASO (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -4

CloseGASO -3.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -4

0.5 → SHSU

CloseGASO -3.5

0.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -4 · closed GASO -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward SHSUmodel GASO -0.5

model GASO -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 43% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -4

CloseGASO -3.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 31–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.7 against an average line of 3.3; 48.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Very close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–38	L	U44
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-3	30–27	P	O43
Close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Close	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GASO LWLWW	8-4	67%	—	2-3
SHSU LLLLW	5-6	45%	1-0	3-2

Venue/role: GASO neutral, as favorite; SHSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOUUU	5-7	42%	8-4
SHSU UUUUU	3-8	27%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 358 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SHSU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−6.0 →−5.2▲ 0.8#91

SHSU−10.8 →−5.7▲ 5.1#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

GASO

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#74

Offense

◀ GASO better

#110

#106

Defense

SHSU better ▶

#27

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.7 #23

68 plays #56

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	GASO off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #66	20.0 #19	SHSU
Yards / play	5.34 #102	4.75 #14	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	0.00 #14	SHSU
Success rate	43% #67	41% #61	Even

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #105	27.3 #84	GASO
Yards / play	5.02 #122	6.44 #122	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.18 #104	Even
Success rate	40% #107	46% #113	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	5.8 #65	8.2 #70	14.0 #71	5.1 #89	9.1 #24	14.2 #59
SHSU allowed	4.8 #58	5.3 #20	10.2 #32	4.3 #32	5.5 #40	9.8 #32

SHSU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.2 #104	8.0 #71	12.2 #96	6.9 #52	3.6 #134	10.5 #107
GASO allowed	6.4 #97	6.5 #45	12.9 #73	9.0 #126	5.4 #37	14.4 #102

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.