North Texas vs Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Jan 3, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTSERVPRO First Responder Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

6-6 · Power #94

final

Final

Texas State

7-5 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -15.5

✓ UNT W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 28–42 TXST

✓ TXST (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -9

CloseTXST -15.5

Total67.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -9

6.5 → TXST

CloseTXST -15.5

6.5 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open67.5

▼ 1

Close66.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -9 · closed TXST -15.5 · moved 6.5 toward TXSTmodel TXST -11

model TXST -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 40% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -9

CloseTXST -15.5

Total67.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like TXST as a 15.5-point neutral-site favorite against UNT, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 30–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 58 points stayed under 66.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.3 against an average line of 12.5; 67.3 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CCU vs NIU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-12	47–41	L	O63.5
Loose	UNC vs SC 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-12.5	21–38	L	O57.5
Loose	ORE vs UNC 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-13	28–27	L	U76

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNT LLLLL	4-7	36%	—	2-3
TXST LWWLW	6-5	55%	0-1	6-5

Venue/role: UNT neutral, as underdog; TXST neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OUOUU	7-4	64%	6-6
TXST UOOOO	7-4	64%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 37% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
TXST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.3 →−6.4▼ 0.1#97

TXST−3.2 →+3.6▲ 6.8#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

UNT

Longer bar = better

TXST

#43

Offense

TXST better ▶

#17

#108

Defense

TXST better ▶

#48

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #109

73 plays #9

Pace

Even

73 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #24	24.3 #60	UNT
Yards / play	6.66 #9	5.17 #39	UNT
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	+0.09 #62	Even
Success rate	42% #71	39% #32	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #7	34.5 #122	TXST
Yards / play	6.48 #19	6.15 #108	TXST
PPA / play	+0.22 #24	+0.17 #101	TXST
Success rate	48% #16	44% #100	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.9 #9	8.3 #66	17.2 #31	10.1 #5	6.8 #79	16.8 #14
TXST allowed	4.6 #51	8.8 #95	13.4 #74	6.3 #93	4.6 #18	10.8 #41

TXST scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.9 #1	8.8 #60	21.8 #2	7.5 #32	7.8 #49	15.3 #38
UNT allowed	8.3 #122	12.8 #131	21.0 #130	6.0 #78	7.5 #88	13.5 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.