Memphis vs West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl, 2024)

Tue, Dec 17, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTScooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff65°F9 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

10-2 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

6-6 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

MEM -5.5

✓ WVU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 31–26 WVU

✓ MEM (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -3.5

CloseMEM -5.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWVU -3.5

9 → MEM

CloseMEM -5.5

9 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WVU -3.5 · closed MEM -5.5 · moved 9 toward MEMmodel MEM -2

model MEM -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -3.5

CloseMEM -5.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like MEM as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against WVU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 42–37; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 79 points went over 60.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 5.6; 50.8 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MD vs VT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-4.5	54–10	W	O55.5
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Loose	OKST vs TA&M 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-4	31–23	W	U55.5
Loose	UNC vs SC 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-12.5	21–38	L	O57.5
Loose	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-3.5	24–10	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MEM LLLWW	6-6	50%	—	4-6
WVU WWLWL	5-7	42%	—	4-5

Venue/role: MEM neutral, as favorite; WVU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOUOO	6-6	50%	10-2
WVU OOOUO	8-4	67%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 185 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.0 →+2.7▲ 0.7#59

WVU+4.6 →+0.8▼ 3.8#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MEM

Longer bar = better

WVU

#37

Offense

◀ MEM better

#78

#54

Defense

◀ MEM better

#115

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−0.5 #109

73 plays #11

Pace

◀ MEM faster

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #19	31.1 #107	MEM
Yards / play	6.09 #48	6.37 #118	MEM
PPA / play	+0.22 #25	+0.25 #127	MEM
Success rate	44% #57	45% #109	MEM

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	WVU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #65	22.8 #45	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #76	5.70 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.09 #65	Even
Success rate	41% #93	38% #28	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.3 #34	11.2 #20	18.4 #24	6.5 #58	10.3 #9	16.8 #19
WVU allowed	3.9 #32	11.7 #127	15.6 #103	5.8 #71	9.8 #121	15.5 #110

WVU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	6.8 #43	10.0 #37	16.8 #33	4.3 #110	7.4 #56	11.7 #95
MEM allowed	5.4 #80	5.2 #16	10.6 #36	3.6 #14	8.6 #110	12.2 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.