BYU vs Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Valero Alamo Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTValero Alamo Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

BYU

10-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

9-3 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

COLO -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 25–27 COLO

✗ COLO (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseCOLO -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPick’em

2.5 → COLO

CloseCOLO -2.5

2.5 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened Pick’em · closed COLO -2.5 · moved 2.5 toward COLOmodel COLO -1.5

model COLO -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 46%, covered 43% (41 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (121 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseCOLO -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against BYU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 36–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 2.7; 50.5 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	ISU vs ASU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	19–45	L	O51
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	HOU vs AUB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-1.25	17–13	W	U49.25
Close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	AFA vs LOU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-1	31–28	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BYU WLLLW	6-4	60%	—	4-1
COLO WWWLW	9-2	82%	—	6-2

Venue/role: BYU neutral, as underdog; COLO neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OOUOO	7-3	70%	10-2
COLO OOOUU	7-4	64%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
COLO	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU−4.1 →+9.5▲ 13.6#26

COLO+0.6 →+11.1▲ 10.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

BYU

Longer bar = better

COLO

#43

Offense

Even

#33

#34

Defense

Even

#28

+0.8 #19

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #11

64 plays #101

Pace

COLO faster ▶

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #48	22.0 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #38	5.07 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #47	+0.01 #17	COLO
Success rate	45% #39	38% #26	Even

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #21	20.1 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.11 #44	4.90 #19	BYU
PPA / play	+0.20 #31	+0.01 #22	Even
Success rate	45% #36	42% #75	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.1 #62	9.3 #47	15.4 #47	9.7 #10	5.7 #107	15.3 #36
COLO allowed	7.0 #107	7.1 #58	14.1 #87	3.2 #11	4.8 #22	7.9 #10

COLO scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	8.8 #12	7.9 #75	16.7 #35	8.9 #14	8.3 #40	17.3 #11
BYU allowed	3.8 #29	8.1 #79	11.8 #52	2.5 #6	5.8 #46	8.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.