Texas Tech vs Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Dec 27, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTAutoZone Liberty Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff58°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

8-4 · Power #46

final

Final

Arkansas

6-6 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -3.5

✓ ARK W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 31–29 ARK

✗ TTU (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -2.5

CloseTTU -3.5

Total59.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -2.5

6 → TTU

CloseTTU -3.5

6 pts toward Texas Tech

Total

Open59.5

▼ 7

Close52.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -2.5 · closed TTU -3.5 · moved 6 toward TTUmodel ARK -3.5

model ARK -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 40% (46 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -2.5

CloseTTU -3.5

Total59.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARK, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 39–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.8 against an average line of 4.2; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSU vs PITT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	SMU vs BYU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–24	L	U65
Close	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Close	UCLA vs PITT 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	35–37	L	O54.5
Loose	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Loose	ODU vs WKU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	35–38	L	O48.75
Loose	USU vs GAST 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.75	22–45	L	O57.75
Loose	ARMY vs MIZ 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-7	24–22	L	U54
Loose	HOU vs AUB 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-1.25	17–13	W	U49.25
Loose	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TTU WWLWW	6-5	55%	—	3-4
ARK WLWLL	7-4	64%	2-0	5-3

Venue/role: TTU neutral, as favorite; ARK neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OUOOO	7-4	64%	8-4
ARK OOUOU	5-6	45%	6-6

Went over in Q3. Of 392 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
ARK	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+4.7 →+5.1▲ 0.4#44

ARK+3.1 →+8.4▲ 5.3#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TTU

Longer bar = better

ARK

#43

Offense

Even

#32

#107

Defense

ARK better ▶

#61

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

◀ TTU better

−0.8 #121

78 plays #3

Pace

◀ TTU faster

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #5	24.9 #67	TTU
Yards / play	5.88 #64	5.42 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	+0.08 #61	Even
Success rate	44% #58	41% #57	Even

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #50	34.5 #123	ARK
Yards / play	6.43 #23	6.39 #119	ARK
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	+0.14 #93	ARK
Success rate	49% #12	44% #93	ARK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	10.5 #5	11.4 #18	21.9 #4	7.3 #41	8.8 #28	16.1 #25
ARK allowed	4.6 #52	5.3 #19	9.9 #24	7.0 #103	7.3 #82	14.3 #100

ARK scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	6.8 #43	8.4 #66	15.3 #47	6.3 #59	8.7 #31	15.0 #47
TTU allowed	6.0 #91	8.2 #79	14.2 #90	8.8 #125	11.1 #131	19.8 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.