Tennessee @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (College Football Playoff First Round, 2024)

Sat, Dec 21, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTCollege Football Playoff First Round · at Ohio State

Weather at kickoff25°F6 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee

10-2 · Power #11

final

Final

Ohio State

10-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -7.5

✓ OSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 22–30 OSU

✓ OSU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -7

CloseOSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -7

0.5 → OSU

CloseOSU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Ohio State

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -7 · closed OSU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward OSUmodel OSU -8

model OSU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (124 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 65% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -7

CloseOSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against TENN, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 42–17; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 46.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 51%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 51%

Covers above normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 7.1; 52.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	OSU vs IU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-10.5	38–15	W	O52.5
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-3	30–24	W	O47
Close	UGA vs TENN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	31–17	W	O47
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Close	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-9	23–45	L	O56
Loose	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Loose	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	56–7	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LLLWW	7-5	58%	2-2	1-1
OSU WWLWL	6-6	50%	4-4	6-6

Venue/role: TENN away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OUOOO	7-5	58%	10-2
OSU UUUOU	5-7	42%	10-2

Went over in Q4. Of 319 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
OSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+13.9 →+19.0▲ 5.1#9

OSU+21.3 →+24.0▲ 2.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TENN

Longer bar = better

OSU

#23

Offense

OSU better ▶

Defense

Even

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #43

74 plays #7

Pace

◀ TENN faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #7	10.9 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #35	4.13 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #32	−0.07 #5	OSU
Success rate	48% #17	36% #7	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #15	13.9 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #7	4.32 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #2	−0.07 #4	Even
Success rate	51% #4	36% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	8.5 #13	11.9 #14	20.4 #11	10.4 #3	5.9 #99	16.3 #22
OSU allowed	2.8 #8	4.4 #11	7.2 #6	0.8 #1	3.0 #2	3.8 #1

OSU scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.3 #53	12.5 #5	18.8 #17	11.3 #1	5.4 #110	16.7 #19
TENN allowed	2.8 #8	3.1 #1	5.8 #2	3.4 #12	4.7 #20	8.1 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.