Tulane vs Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Dec 20, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTUnion Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff64°F9 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulane

9-4 · Power #40

final

Final

Florida

7-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -9.5

✓ FLA W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 21–29 FLA

✓ FLA (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -9.5

CloseFLA -9.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -9.5

no move

CloseFLA -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -9.5 · unchangedmodel FLA -1.5

model FLA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -9.5

CloseFLA -9.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 9.5-point neutral-site favorite against TULN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 33–8; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 6; 46.9 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	MIZ vs MEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-6.5	34–27	W	O52
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	WISC vs ASU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-7.75	20–13	L	U42.5
Loose	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Loose	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-5	45–38	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TULN WWWLL	9-4	69%	—	1-1
FLA WLWWW	7-4	64%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: TULN neutral, as underdog; FLA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOUOO	8-5	62%	9-4
FLA OOUUU	5-6	45%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
FLA	6-4 60%	7-2 78%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+8.6▲ 7.3#33

FLA+8.5 →+9.8▲ 1.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TULN

Longer bar = better

FLA

#17

Offense

◀ TULN better

#66

#25

Defense

◀ TULN better

#71

+0.6 #26

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #38

65 plays #95

Pace

◀ TULN faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #9	24.3 #63	TULN
Yards / play	6.53 #17	5.37 #52	TULN
PPA / play	+0.28 #13	+0.10 #66	TULN
Success rate	46% #27	45% #102	TULN

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	FLA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #69	19.7 #17	TULN
Yards / play	6.22 #39	5.12 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	+0.02 #23	TULN
Success rate	43% #69	38% #22	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	7.6 #27	11.0 #20	18.6 #21	8.2 #22	10.3 #7	18.5 #6
FLA allowed	3.7 #26	7.9 #75	11.6 #49	7.6 #109	4.7 #22	12.3 #62

FLA scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	3.7 #117	9.4 #44	13.1 #83	5.7 #73	9.2 #22	14.8 #47
TULN allowed	3.1 #11	6.3 #36	9.4 #19	4.1 #25	6.2 #60	10.3 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.