Tulane @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Fri, Dec 6, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Army

Weather at kickoff25°F5 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulane

9-3 · Power #40

final

Final

Army

10-1 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -4.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 27–23 ARMY

✗ TULN (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -3.5

CloseTULN -4.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -3.5

1 → TULN

CloseTULN -4.5

1 pt toward Tulane

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -3.5 · closed TULN -4.5 · moved 1 toward TULNmodel TULN -4

model TULN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (89 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (119 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -3.5

CloseTULN -4.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 4.5-point road favorite at ARMY, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARMY won 35–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 3.3; 42.1 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	16–24	L	U52
Very close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Very close	TULN @ NAVY 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	35–0	W	U49
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WWWWL	9-3	75%	5-1	8-2
ARMY LLWLL	7-4	64%	3-3	1-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; ARMY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OUOUO	7-5	58%	9-3
ARMY OUUOU	6-5	55%	10-1

Went over in Q4. Of 316 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ARMY	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+9.9▲ 8.6#25

ARMY−16.8 →+3.2▲ 20.0#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

TULN

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#16

Offense

Even

#18

#19

Defense

◀ TULN better

#42

+0.8 #17

Turnovers

Even

+1.1 #7

65 plays #83

Pace

◀ TULN faster

64 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #6	15.1 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #17	5.22 #45	TULN
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	+0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	46% #29	44% #95	TULN

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #32	18.4 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #32	5.05 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #6	−0.02 #13	Even
Success rate	52% #2	37% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.3 #20	11.3 #21	19.6 #16	8.9 #15	10.6 #6	19.5 #3
ARMY allowed	3.7 #29	2.5 #1	6.2 #3	3.7 #19	5.2 #35	8.9 #17

ARMY scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	7.8 #26	9.4 #45	17.2 #32	7.7 #29	7.8 #49	15.5 #35
TULN allowed	2.8 #8	5.7 #25	8.4 #14	3.8 #21	6.2 #57	10.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.