Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Fri, Dec 6, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Jacksonville State

Weather at kickoff33°F6 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Kentucky

8-4 · Power #103

final

Final

Jacksonville State

8-4 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -4.5

✓ JXST W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 28–33 JXST

✓ JXST (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -1.5

CloseJXST -4.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -1.5

3 → JXST

CloseJXST -4.5

3 pts toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -1.5 · closed JXST -4.5 · moved 3 toward JXSTmodel JXST -4.5 matches the line

model JXST -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (138 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -1.5

CloseJXST -4.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 4.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: JXST won 52–12; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 4.2; 55.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs WKU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1	38–21	W	O55.5
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Close	JXST vs SHSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	21–11	W	U57.5
Close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & spread	-6	17–26	L	U58
Close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	41–21	W	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LLLLW	7-5	58%	3-3	4-2
JXST WLLWL	6-6	50%	4-2	5-5

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UOUOU	5-7	42%	8-4
JXST UOOUU	7-5	58%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 279 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
JXST	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WKU 1–3 JXST JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Jacksonville State 17 @ Western Kentucky 19	JXST -0.5	WKU W
Oct 17 2023	Western Kentucky 17 @ Jacksonville State 20	WKU -7.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−6.3▼ 1.1#98

JXST−4.5 →−4.4▲ 0.1#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

WKU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#68

Offense

JXST better ▶

#32

#73

Defense

Even

#73

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+0.6 #27

66 plays #77

Pace

JXST faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #78	27.0 #83	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #63	5.60 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.07 #51	Even
Success rate	43% #70	43% #88	Even

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #18	22.2 #41	JXST
Yards / play	6.36 #30	5.76 #85	JXST
PPA / play	+0.18 #40	+0.10 #68	JXST
Success rate	45% #38	44% #99	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	7.8 #25	7.0 #93	14.8 #51	5.0 #93	6.8 #75	11.8 #92
JXST allowed	7.1 #110	8.9 #98	16.0 #110	4.2 #28	6.3 #62	10.5 #38

JXST scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.6 #49	11.7 #16	18.3 #25	7.4 #36	8.9 #25	16.3 #24
WKU allowed	4.0 #35	7.5 #65	11.5 #49	5.5 #66	5.2 #33	10.7 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.