Ohio vs Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (StaffDNA Cure Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Dec 20, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTStaffDNA Cure Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

10-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville State

9-4 · Power #81

final

Closing spread

OHIO -5.5

✓ JXST W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 30–25 JXST

✓ OHIO (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -1.5

CloseOHIO -5.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -1.5

4 → OHIO

CloseOHIO -5.5

4 pts toward Ohio

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Close56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -1.5 · closed OHIO -5.5 · moved 4 toward OHIOmodel OHIO -3

model OHIO -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -1.5

CloseOHIO -5.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against JXST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 5.1; 51.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–31	L	O58
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	GAST vs BALL 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-6	51–20	W	O53
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Loose	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OHIO WWWWW	9-4	69%	1-0	6-2
JXST LLWLW	7-6	54%	—	1-1

Venue/role: OHIO neutral, as favorite; JXST neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO UUUOU	6-7	46%	10-3
JXST OOUUO	8-5	62%	9-4

Went over in Q4. Of 342 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
JXST	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.6 →−0.1▲ 3.5#67

JXST−4.5 →−2.6▲ 1.9#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

OHIO

Longer bar = better

JXST

#42

Offense

JXST better ▶

#23

#19

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#68

−0.2 #76

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+0.7 #21

65 plays #86

Pace

JXST faster ▶

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #58	25.8 #75	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #42	5.51 #67	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.19 #36	+0.06 #46	Even
Success rate	46% #31	43% #85	OHIO

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #12	17.5 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #22	4.85 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #26	+0.04 #33	Even
Success rate	46% #32	37% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.6 #96	9.1 #53	13.7 #76	6.9 #51	8.6 #34	15.5 #33
JXST allowed	6.8 #102	8.5 #91	15.2 #97	4.3 #31	5.8 #52	10.2 #32

JXST scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.2 #36	11.8 #14	19.0 #17	7.6 #31	9.3 #20	16.9 #15
OHIO allowed	1.2 #2	7.3 #61	8.5 #15	5.1 #59	3.9 #9	9.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.