Pittsburgh vs Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (GameAbove Sports Bowl, 2024)

Thu, Dec 26, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTGameAbove Sports Bowl · Neutral site

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Pittsburgh

7-5 · Power #57

final

Final

Toledo

7-5 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -6.5

✓ TOL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 94 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 29–22 TOL

✗ PITT (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -9

ClosePITT -6.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -9

2.5 → TOL

ClosePITT -6.5

2.5 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -9 · closed PITT -6.5 · moved 2.5 toward TOLmodel PITT -10.5

model PITT -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -9

ClosePITT -6.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against TOL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 48–46 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 94 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 6.3; 45.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	SJSU vs CCU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	14–24	L	U48.5
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–24	L	U56
Close	TOL vs M-OH 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	14–23	L	U43.5
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	MEM vs USU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings	-8	38–10	W	U57
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	UTSA vs MRSH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	35–17	W	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PITT LLWLL	6-6	50%	—	4-3
TOL LLWLL	5-7	42%	—	2-1

Venue/role: PITT neutral, as favorite; TOL neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OUUUO	5-7	42%	7-5
TOL OOUUU	7-5	58%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 361 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TOL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT−0.9 →+3.5▲ 4.4#53

TOL−0.4 →−5.9▼ 5.5#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PITT

Longer bar = better

TOL

#69

Offense

◀ PITT better

#90

#49

Defense

TOL better ▶

#31

−0.1 #70

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #65

69 plays #49

Pace

Even

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	PITT off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #42	21.3 #32	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #58	4.96 #26	TOL
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	+0.04 #35	TOL
Success rate	41% #100	39% #32	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	TOL off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #78	26.8 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #94	5.12 #36	PITT
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.07 #46	PITT
Success rate	42% #86	39% #31	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	7.1 #37	8.8 #56	15.9 #40	5.6 #75	10.3 #6	15.9 #28
TOL allowed	4.3 #41	4.1 #8	8.3 #11	4.6 #39	7.8 #97	12.4 #66

TOL scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	5.3 #80	9.3 #46	14.6 #56	5.1 #91	7.0 #72	12.1 #87
PITT allowed	5.9 #90	9.6 #104	15.5 #99	6.8 #98	4.5 #13	11.3 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.