UConn vs North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Wasabi Fenway Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 11:00 AM ESTWasabi Fenway Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff38°F6 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UConn

8-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

6-6 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

UNC -1.5

✓ CONN W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 26–29 UNC

✗ UNC (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -6

CloseUNC -1.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -6

7.5 → UNC

CloseUNC -1.5

7.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open56.5

▼ 4

Close52.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -6 · closed UNC -1.5 · moved 7.5 toward UNCmodel UNC -8

model UNC -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -6

CloseUNC -1.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like UNC as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against CONN, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 27–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 6 similar games. 41 points stayed under 52.5, as in 2 of 6.

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.2 against an average line of 3.5; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	USU vs GAST 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.75	22–45	L	O57.75
Loose	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	38–24	W	O48
Loose	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Loose	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Loose	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Loose	WYO vs TOL 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	16–15	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CONN WLWWL	7-5	58%	—	3-2
UNC WWLLL	3-9	25%	—	2-7

Venue/role: CONN neutral, as underdog; UNC neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UOOOO	10-2	83%	8-4
UNC UUUOO	5-7	42%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
UNC	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−11.5 →−4.9▲ 6.6#87

UNC+7.2 →+2.3▼ 4.9#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CONN

Longer bar = better

UNC

#70

Offense

UNC better ▶

#54

#43

Defense

◀ CONN better

#76

−0.2 #79

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #72

70 plays #31

Pace

Even

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #37	28.2 #90	CONN
Yards / play	5.71 #78	5.68 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.13 #82	Even
Success rate	42% #91	40% #52	UNC

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #38	23.8 #58	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #51	5.11 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #53	+0.06 #38	Even
Success rate	42% #72	40% #42	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.3 #30	7.3 #89	14.6 #57	8.0 #24	9.8 #14	17.8 #9
UNC allowed	5.3 #78	8.3 #82	13.6 #80	5.5 #68	9.1 #114	14.6 #103

UNC scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	4.9 #89	9.7 #40	14.6 #57	9.1 #13	8.7 #32	17.8 #9
CONN allowed	4.8 #60	7.8 #75	12.7 #68	3.5 #12	7.7 #92	11.2 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.