Northern Illinois vs Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 2024)

Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 2:30 PM ESTFamous Idaho Potato Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff47°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

7-5 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

6-6 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

NIU -2.5

✓ NIU W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 22–20 FRES

✓ NIU (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -2

CloseNIU -2.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -2

0.5 → NIU

CloseNIU -2.5

0.5 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -2 · closed NIU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward NIUmodel NIU -1

model NIU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -2

CloseNIU -2.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against FRES, the favorite won 4, covered 0, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 28–20; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 40.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

0 of 80%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 8 against an average line of 3.7; 38.2 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	3–38	L	U44
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	O32
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3	30–27	P	O43
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	10–37	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NIU LWLLL	6-6	50%	—	3-5
FRES WLLWW	6-5	55%	—	1-2

Venue/role: NIU neutral, as favorite; FRES neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OOOUU	6-6	50%	7-5
FRES UUOOU	4-7	36%	6-6

Went over in OT. Of 135 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
FRES	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−2.8▲ 5.0#78

FRES−2.4 →−3.9▼ 1.5#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

NIU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#89

Offense

Even

#99

#12

Defense

◀ NIU better

#41

−0.3 #86

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+0.3 #51

71 plays #18

Pace

◀ NIU faster

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	NIU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #98	24.6 #65	FRES
Yards / play	5.39 #95	4.92 #23	FRES
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.01 #21	FRES
Success rate	42% #71	41% #55	Even

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	FRES off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #80	18.4 #15	NIU
Yards / play	5.40 #94	4.63 #9	NIU
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	−0.01 #13	NIU
Success rate	38% #120	37% #12	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	7.2 #34	7.5 #82	14.7 #54	3.6 #120	6.0 #95	9.6 #119
FRES allowed	6.5 #98	4.3 #8	10.8 #38	3.8 #16	10.0 #124	13.8 #92

FRES scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	6.2 #57	10.5 #28	16.7 #36	5.8 #69	4.2 #131	9.9 #115
NIU allowed	4.8 #60	6.8 #51	11.6 #50	3.0 #10	3.6 #6	6.6 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.