Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff25°F13 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Central Michigan

4-7 · Power #123

final

Final

Northern Illinois

6-5 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -16.5

✓ CMU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 13–30 NIU

✓ NIU (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -13

CloseNIU -16.5

Total45.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -13

3.5 → NIU

CloseNIU -16.5

3.5 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open45.5

▼ 4

Close41.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -13 · closed NIU -16.5 · moved 3.5 toward NIUmodel NIU -17

model NIU -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 45% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -13

CloseNIU -16.5

Total45.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 16.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 24–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 16.8; 43.2 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	19–0	W	U37.5
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form	-16.5	17–14	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLWLW	5-6	45%	1-4	4-3
NIU LLWLL	6-5	55%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OOUUU	6-5	55%	4-7
NIU UOOOU	6-5	55%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 2 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 57% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NIU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CMU 1–0 NIU CMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 31 2023	Northern Illinois 31 @ Central Michigan 37	NIU -6.5	CMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−12.0 →−15.3▼ 3.3#123

NIU−7.8 →−2.5▲ 5.3#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CMU

Longer bar = better

NIU

#99

Offense

Even

#86

#89

Defense

NIU better ▶

#17

−1.4 #136

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

−0.5 #102

63 plays #113

Pace

NIU faster ▶

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	CMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #105	18.6 #17	NIU
Yards / play	5.46 #93	4.71 #11	NIU
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	0.00 #17	NIU
Success rate	39% #110	37% #22	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Even matchup

	NIU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #97	30.2 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #94	5.75 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	+0.21 #114	NIU
Success rate	43% #68	40% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	4.0 #106	8.4 #65	12.4 #92	5.4 #79	5.5 #110	10.8 #107
NIU allowed	5.3 #76	5.9 #26	11.2 #48	3.3 #13	3.9 #9	7.2 #8

NIU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	6.1 #60	8.0 #71	14.1 #69	3.6 #122	6.5 #82	10.2 #114
CMU allowed	5.8 #87	10.4 #117	16.2 #113	5.4 #61	8.6 #110	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.