Oregon State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff31°F0 mphgusts 5DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oregon State

5-6 · Power #98

final

Final

Boise State

10-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -17.5

✓ ORST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 21–39 BOIS

✓ BOIS (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -20

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -20

2.5 → ORST

CloseBOIS -17.5

2.5 pts toward Oregon State

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -20 · closed BOIS -17.5 · moved 2.5 toward ORSTmodel BOIS -22.5

model BOIS -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 53% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -20

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 17.5-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 34–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 17.3; 55.5 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	17–13	L	U62
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	MEM vs CLT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	33–28	L	O56
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Close	TCU vs HOU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-16.5	19–30	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LLLLW	3-7	30%	1-3	1-2
BOIS WWLWL	7-3	70%	3-1	6-3

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST UOUUO	5-5	50%	5-6
BOIS UOUOU	6-4	60%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
BOIS	9-1 90%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORST 6–5 BOIS ORST leads · 11 games since 1986 · BOIS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+7.8 →−7.0▼ 14.8#100

BOIS+2.2 →+9.2▲ 7.0#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ORST

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#80

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#119

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#61

−0.5 #108

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.6 #26

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ ORST faster

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #96	23.6 #60	BOIS
Yards / play	5.52 #89	5.62 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	+0.08 #60	BOIS
Success rate	45% #42	40% #49	Even

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	41.2 #3	29.5 #101	BOIS
Yards / play	7.03 #3	6.62 #127	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.36 #3	+0.23 #122	BOIS
Success rate	49% #10	48% #125	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	4.1 #106	8.1 #73	12.2 #94	3.7 #119	7.5 #50	11.3 #101
BOIS allowed	4.6 #53	7.1 #57	11.7 #56	5.0 #49	6.9 #75	11.9 #61

BOIS scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.1 #11	13.5 #2	22.5 #3	6.0 #70	12.6 #2	18.6 #5
ORST allowed	5.5 #77	8.1 #77	13.6 #83	4.3 #32	11.0 #131	15.3 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.