Penn State vs Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal, 2024)

Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTVrbo Fiesta Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Penn State

12-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Boise State

12-1 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

PSU -11.5

✓ PSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 34–23 BOIS

✓ PSU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -11

ClosePSU -11.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -11

0.5 → PSU

ClosePSU -11.5

0.5 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -11 · closed PSU -11.5 · moved 0.5 toward PSUmodel PSU -11

model PSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -11

ClosePSU -11.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as an 11.5-point neutral-site favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 10.4; 58 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-13	27–6	W	U57.5
Close	ALA vs KSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	45–20	W	O58
Close	UGA vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	65–7	W	O61.75
Close	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	34–20	L	O52.5
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8	45–51	L	O56
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total	-14	34–7	W	U50.5
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-5	34–13	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PSU WLWLW	6-7	46%	0-1	6-5
BOIS LWLLW	8-4	67%	—	1-0

Venue/role: PSU neutral, as favorite; BOIS neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OOOOU	6-7	46%	12-2
BOIS UOUUU	6-6	50%	12-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BOIS	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+18.8 →+19.6▲ 0.8#8

BOIS+2.2 →+9.4▲ 7.2#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PSU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#13

Offense

Even

#12

Defense

◀ PSU better

#44

+0.5 #35

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #32

66 plays #79

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #25	21.9 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #8	5.61 #72	PSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #13	+0.07 #46	PSU
Success rate	51% #4	38% #26	PSU

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #3	15.9 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #7	4.57 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #4	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	48% #12	38% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.4 #77	13.2 #2	18.6 #21	7.1 #41	8.0 #45	15.1 #43
BOIS allowed	3.9 #29	6.5 #46	10.5 #31	4.5 #35	7.0 #73	11.5 #53

BOIS scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.3 #8	13.0 #3	22.3 #3	5.5 #78	11.2 #4	16.8 #16
PSU allowed	4.4 #43	5.9 #22	10.3 #29	1.8 #2	3.9 #8	5.6 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.