Notre Dame vs Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Capital One Orange Bowl · CFP Semifinal, 2024)

Thu, Jan 9, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTCapital One Orange Bowl · CFP Semifinal · Neutral site

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Notre Dame

13-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

13-2 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

PSU -1.5

✓ ND W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 24–25 PSU

✗ PSU (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -1.5

ClosePSU -1.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -1.5

3 → PSU

ClosePSU -1.5

3 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -1.5 · closed PSU -1.5 · moved 3 toward PSUmodel ND -2.5

model ND -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (124 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -1.5

ClosePSU -1.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against ND, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 2.6; 51.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	ISU vs ASU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	19–45	L	O51
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-2	27–20	W	O46
Loose	CLEM vs ISU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-1.75	20–13	W	U45
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-3	33–18	W	U53
Loose	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-3	19–22	L	U51
Loose	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & rest	-4.5	10–20	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND LWWWW	11-3	79%	4-0	1-0
PSU LWLWW	7-7	50%	1-1	7-5

Venue/role: ND neutral, as underdog; PSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UOOUU	7-7	50%	13-1
PSU OOOUU	6-8	43%	13-2

Went over in Q4. Of 298 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	10-0 100%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%
PSU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+18.9 →+21.8▲ 2.9#4

PSU+18.8 →+19.6▲ 0.8#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

PSU

#17

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

Even

#11

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ ND better

+0.7 #22

63 plays #110

Pace

PSU faster ▶

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #4	15.8 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #20	4.64 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #17	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	46% #27	38% #19	Even

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #25	13.6 #2	ND
Yards / play	6.64 #10	4.55 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #14	−0.17 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #4	36% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ND scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.7 #25	12.3 #5	20.0 #13	9.6 #8	8.1 #41	17.7 #6
PSU allowed	4.1 #33	5.9 #22	10.1 #24	2.1 #2	3.6 #7	5.7 #3

PSU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.9 #64	12.5 #4	18.5 #22	7.1 #41	7.9 #46	15.1 #42
ND allowed	2.6 #7	3.6 #5	6.2 #2	2.5 #5	4.9 #26	7.4 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.