Ohio State vs Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · CFP Semifinal, 2024)

Fri, Jan 10, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTGoodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · CFP Semifinal · Neutral site

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Ohio State

12-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Texas

13-2 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

OSU -5.5

✓ OSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 27–23 TEX

✓ OSU (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -5

CloseOSU -5.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -5

0.5 → OSU

CloseOSU -5.5

0.5 pts toward Ohio State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -5 · closed OSU -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward OSUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 38% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -5

CloseOSU -5.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against TEX, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 28–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 4.7; 56.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.25	24–41	L	O48.75
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	19–22	L	U51
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-8	45–51	L	O56
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & season form	-6.5	34–22	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OSU LWLWW	8-6	57%	1-0	8-6
TEX LWLWL	8-7	53%	1-2	—

Venue/role: OSU neutral, as favorite; TEX neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UOUOO	7-7	50%	12-2
TEX UUUOO	6-9	40%	13-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TEX	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+24.0▲ 2.7#1

TEX+19.1 →+23.9▲ 4.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

OSU

Longer bar = better

TEX

Offense

◀ OSU better

#28

Defense

Even

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #41

62 plays #118

Pace

TEX faster ▶

70 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #11	14.5 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.96 #3	4.28 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #1	−0.10 #2	Even
Success rate	51% #3	38% #19	Even

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	TEX off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #21	12.1 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #27	4.07 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #34	−0.04 #6	OSU
Success rate	46% #29	36% #6	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.9 #19	12.1 #6	20.1 #11	11.1 #1	5.1 #114	16.3 #22
TEX allowed	1.8 #3	3.4 #3	5.2 #1	4.2 #24	4.2 #8	8.4 #11

TEX scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.6 #11	11.7 #12	20.3 #10	5.7 #71	7.1 #68	12.8 #77
OSU allowed	2.4 #5	5.1 #13	7.4 #6	1.1 #1	3.5 #5	4.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.