Ohio State vs Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP National Championship, 2024)

Mon, Jan 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTCFP National Championship · Neutral site

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Ohio State

13-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Notre Dame

14-1 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

OSU -8.5

✓ OSU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 28–21 ND

✓ OSU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -9.5

CloseOSU -8.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -9.5

1 → ND

CloseOSU -8.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -9.5 · closed OSU -8.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel OSU -2.5

model OSU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -9.5

CloseOSU -8.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as an 8.5-point neutral-site favorite against ND, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 34–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 6; 53.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Close	UGA vs MICH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	34–11	W	U46
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation	-6.25	24–41	L	O48.75
Loose	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2	27–20	W	O46
Loose	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-8	45–51	L	O56
Loose	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & situation	-7	16–21	L	U45
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	33–18	W	U53
Loose	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Loose	ALA vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-13	27–6	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OSU WLWWW	9-6	60%	2-0	9-6
ND WWWWW	12-3	80%	5-0	2-0

Venue/role: OSU neutral, as favorite; ND neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OUOOU	7-8	47%	13-2
ND OOUUO	8-7	53%	14-1

Went over in Q3. Of 279 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ND	10-0 100%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 1–0 ND OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Ohio State 17 @ Notre Dame 14	OSU -3	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+24.0▲ 2.7#1

ND+18.9 →+21.8▲ 2.9#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

OSU

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#18

Defense

Even

+0.3 #44

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+1.1 #5

62 plays #122

Pace

ND faster ▶

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #12	14.3 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.93 #3	4.60 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #1	−0.14 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #3	37% #10	Even

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #6	12.2 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #23	4.14 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.25 #18	−0.05 #6	Even
Success rate	46% #25	36% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.9 #20	11.8 #8	19.7 #11	10.4 #3	5.7 #108	16.1 #22
ND allowed	2.5 #7	4.0 #6	6.5 #2	2.3 #3	5.5 #35	7.8 #8

ND scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.2 #32	11.7 #12	18.9 #19	9.4 #10	8.7 #29	18.1 #3
OSU allowed	2.2 #5	5.2 #13	7.4 #6	1.5 #1	3.3 #2	4.8 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.