Ohio State vs Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Rose Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal, 2024)

Wed, Jan 1, 2025, 5:00 PM ESTRose Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff67°F1 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

11-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Oregon

13-0 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

OSU -2.5

✓ OSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 29–26 ORE

✓ OSU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -1

CloseOSU -2.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -1

1.5 → OSU

CloseOSU -2.5

1.5 pts toward Ohio State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -1 · closed OSU -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward OSUmodel OSU -3

model OSU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 44%, covered 41% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (123 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -1

CloseOSU -2.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against ORE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 41–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 3.9; 54.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	33–18	W	U53
Very close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	19–22	L	U51
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Close	UGA vs OSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.25	42–41	L	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OSU WLWLW	7-6	54%	—	7-6
ORE WLLWW	6-5	55%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: OSU neutral, as favorite; ORE neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UUOUO	6-7	46%	11-2
ORE OUUOO	5-6	45%	13-0

Went over in Q3. Of 372 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
ORE	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 0–1 ORE ORE leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Ohio State 31 @ Oregon 32	OSU -3.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+24.0▲ 2.7#1

ORE+22.4 →+21.3▼ 1.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

OSU

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

Even

#10

Defense

◀ OSU better

#20

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+0.5 #31

63 plays #113

Pace

ORE faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #12	17.8 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #6	4.90 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #1	+0.03 #31	OSU
Success rate	52% #3	38% #19	Even

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #13	11.4 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #13	4.09 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #7	−0.05 #5	Even
Success rate	51% #5	36% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.5 #29	11.5 #15	19.0 #16	11.5 #1	5.5 #109	17.0 #12
ORE allowed	3.5 #22	6.9 #53	10.5 #30	2.5 #6	4.8 #21	7.3 #5

ORE scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.5 #13	13.9 #1	22.4 #2	3.9 #116	9.6 #16	13.5 #66
OSU allowed	2.5 #7	4.8 #13	7.4 #5	0.7 #1	3.3 #3	4.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.