App State @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

App State

5-5 · Power #99

final

Final

Georgia Southern

7-4 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -2.5

✓ GASO W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 29–32 GASO

✓ GASO (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -2.5

CloseGASO -2.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -2.5

no move

CloseGASO -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -2.5 · unchangedmodel GASO -4.5

model GASO -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (212 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -2.5

CloseGASO -2.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 2.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 29–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 3.7; 56.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs APP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	52–37	W	O56.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	42–21	W	U65
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	42–39	W	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WLWLW	4-5	44%	2-3	4-2
GASO WLWLW	7-4	64%	3-2	1-3

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UUUUU	2-7	22%	5-5
GASO UOOUU	5-6	45%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 44% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%
GASO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

APP 14–10 GASO APP leads · 24 games since 2003 · GASO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Georgia Southern 27 @ App State 55	APP -10	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−0.7 →−7.0▼ 6.3#99

GASO−6.0 →−5.2▲ 0.8#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

APP

Longer bar = better

GASO

#70

Offense

Even

#83

#125

Defense

GASO better ▶

#107

−0.9 #127

Turnovers

GASO better ▶

+0.1 #66

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ APP faster

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #74	28.0 #91	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #56	6.46 #121	APP
PPA / play	+0.12 #76	+0.18 #106	APP
Success rate	43% #75	45% #111	APP

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #66	33.3 #116	GASO
Yards / play	5.29 #110	6.61 #127	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.25 #127	GASO
Success rate	42% #83	49% #129	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

APP scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.2 #133	12.6 #4	14.8 #55	5.2 #86	7.3 #62	12.5 #78
GASO allowed	7.0 #108	6.5 #48	13.5 #79	9.2 #128	5.3 #38	14.5 #101

GASO scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	5.6 #71	8.3 #68	13.9 #73	5.5 #79	8.6 #35	14.2 #61
APP allowed	9.9 #132	12.0 #128	21.9 #132	6.6 #94	4.8 #30	11.4 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.