Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

5-6 · Power #101

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

3-8 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

GAST -0.5

✓ CCU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 27–27 GAST

✗ GAST (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCCU -1

CloseGAST -0.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCCU -1

1.5 → GAST

CloseGAST -0.5

1.5 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CCU -1 · closed GAST -0.5 · moved 1.5 toward GASTmodel GAST -1

model GAST -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–1.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 43% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (115 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCCU -1

CloseGAST -0.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 0.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 48–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 2.6; 51 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	25–24	L	U50
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	13–17	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU LLWLL	4-7	36%	1-4	2-4
GAST WWLLW	4-6	40%	1-4	0-4

Venue/role: CCU away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU OOUUU	6-5	55%	5-6
GAST UOUUO	5-5	50%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 368 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
GAST	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CCU 0–1 GAST GAST leads · 1 game since 2023 · GAST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2023	Georgia State 30 @ Coastal Carolina 17	CCU -4.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−2.5 →−8.0▼ 5.5#102

GAST−5.1 →−9.8▼ 4.7#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CCU

Longer bar = better

GAST

#81

Offense

Even

#92

#93

Defense

◀ CCU better

#116

+0.1 #68

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+0.2 #54

64 plays #105

Pace

GAST faster ▶

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #65	32.5 #114	CCU
Yards / play	5.88 #61	6.21 #111	CCU
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	+0.23 #118	CCU
Success rate	39% #106	46% #119	Even

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #103	30.9 #106	Even
Yards / play	5.69 #77	5.75 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.13 #90	Even
Success rate	41% #95	43% #90	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	8.5 #19	6.5 #103	15.0 #52	7.7 #31	5.5 #109	13.2 #71
GAST allowed	8.5 #123	7.4 #63	15.8 #108	6.3 #86	10.5 #127	16.7 #119

GAST scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	3.1 #125	8.5 #62	11.5 #100	6.5 #57	5.5 #108	12.0 #90
CCU allowed	5.5 #79	11.3 #124	16.8 #116	4.7 #46	9.4 #116	14.1 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.