Middle Tennessee @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

3-8 · Power #129

final

Final

Florida International

3-8 · Power #121

▲ winner

Closing spread

FIU -9.5

✓ FIU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 20–29 FIU

✓ FIU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -9

CloseFIU -9.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -9

0.5 → FIU

CloseFIU -9.5

0.5 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -9 · closed FIU -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward FIUmodel FIU -11

model FIU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 43% (94 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -9

CloseFIU -9.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 9.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 35–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 9.2; 51.8 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	50–10	W	O55
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	14–10	L	U49
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	10–16	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LLWLL	2-8	20%	2-3	2-6
FIU LWWWL	7-4	64%	4-1	1-3

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUUUO	4-6	40%	3-8
FIU OUOOO	7-4	64%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 377 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
FIU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MTSU 1–0 FIU MTSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Florida International 6 @ Middle Tennessee 40	MTSU -10.5	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−7.5 →−20.0▼ 12.5#129

FIU−14.7 →−12.8▲ 1.9#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MTSU

Longer bar = better

FIU

#112

Offense

Even

#104

#128

Defense

FIU better ▶

#57

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

FIU better ▶

−0.4 #94

64 plays #107

Pace

◀ MTSU faster

61 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	MTSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #130	25.9 #76	FIU
Yards / play	5.49 #90	5.18 #43	FIU
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.06 #48	FIU
Success rate	39% #113	41% #59	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: FIU offense

	FIU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #91	34.2 #120	FIU
Yards / play	5.59 #83	6.64 #128	FIU
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.28 #131	Even
Success rate	38% #119	50% #132	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.3 #78	2.8 #134	8.1 #130	5.0 #93	4.5 #126	9.5 #119
FIU allowed	3.6 #26	10.1 #114	13.7 #83	5.4 #60	6.2 #58	11.5 #52

FIU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	4.4 #99	8.8 #55	13.2 #81	5.6 #75	6.7 #78	12.4 #81
MTSU allowed	10.5 #133	8.3 #84	18.7 #123	9.8 #130	5.6 #47	15.5 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.