UTEP @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

2-9 · Power #128

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

3-8 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

NMSU -3.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 24–27 NMSU

✗ NMSU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNMSU -2

CloseNMSU -3.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNMSU -2

1.5 → NMSU

CloseNMSU -3.5

1.5 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NMSU -2 · closed NMSU -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward NMSUmodel UTEP -1

model UTEP -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (202 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNMSU -2

CloseNMSU -3.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTEP won 42–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 2.7; 49.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEM vs FAU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	18–15	W	U50.5
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	TEM vs TLSA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	20–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP WWLWL	4-6	40%	2-3	3-4
NMSU WLWWW	5-6	45%	3-2	0-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; NMSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP OUUOO	5-5	50%	2-9
NMSU OOOUO	6-5	55%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 410 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NMSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTEP 0–1 NMSU NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2023	New Mexico State 28 @ UTEP 7	NMSU -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−11.5 →−17.9▼ 6.4#128

NMSU−7.8 →−21.2▼ 13.4#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UTEP

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#128

Offense

Even

#120

#81

Defense

◀ UTEP better

#115

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

◀ UTEP better

−1.0 #129

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ UTEP faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #131	35.7 #124	Even
Yards / play	4.75 #128	6.47 #123	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #129	+0.26 #128	Even
Success rate	37% #122	43% #84	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	NMSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #123	32.1 #113	Even
Yards / play	4.71 #130	5.76 #87	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.01 #118	+0.11 #71	UTEP
Success rate	39% #108	40% #52	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.6 #95	3.7 #132	8.4 #129	4.3 #108	3.5 #134	7.7 #129
NMSU allowed	7.5 #113	10.7 #120	18.3 #120	7.0 #101	9.9 #125	16.9 #120

NMSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.6 #118	3.8 #130	7.5 #131	3.7 #119	8.4 #38	12.1 #87
UTEP allowed	5.9 #90	9.9 #110	15.8 #106	9.5 #128	5.8 #51	15.4 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.