Louisville @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff30°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisville

7-4 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

4-7 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

LOU -3.5

✓ LOU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 26–22 UK

✓ LOU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -3

CloseLOU -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -3

0.5 → LOU

CloseLOU -3.5

0.5 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -3 · closed LOU -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward LOUmodel LOU -6

model LOU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (133 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -3

CloseLOU -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 41–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 4.5; 45.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	26–16	W	U48
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Very close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–20	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LLWLW	5-6	45%	1-4	4-4
UK LLWWW	7-4	64%	4-3	4-0

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOUOU	7-4	64%	7-4
UK OUOUU	3-8	27%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 338 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UK	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 0–1 UK UK leads · 1 game since 2023 · UK has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Kentucky 38 @ Louisville 31	LOU -7.5	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+13.6▲ 4.0#16

UK+5.8 →+5.4▼ 0.4#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LOU

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

◀ LOU better

#109

#56

Defense

◀ LOU better

#71

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.3 #90

66 plays #77

Pace

◀ LOU faster

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #17	20.4 #26	Even
Yards / play	6.89 #8	5.68 #76	LOU
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	+0.09 #66	LOU
Success rate	47% #21	46% #115	LOU

When UK has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	UK off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #117	24.1 #60	LOU
Yards / play	5.21 #116	5.25 #44	LOU
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.11 #72	LOU
Success rate	42% #85	40% #49	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.8 #46	11.9 #13	18.7 #23	9.9 #9	7.5 #52	17.5 #15
UK allowed	3.1 #16	7.1 #62	10.2 #32	6.1 #83	6.1 #56	12.2 #67

UK scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	4.0 #107	7.0 #95	11.0 #108	4.0 #113	5.2 #116	9.2 #120
LOU allowed	7.5 #114	5.8 #25	13.4 #78	4.4 #37	6.4 #62	10.7 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.