Auburn @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

5-6 · Power #33

final

Final

Alabama

8-3 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -10.5

✓ ALA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 20–32 ALA

✓ ALA (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -10.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -11.5

1 → AUB

CloseALA -10.5

1 pt toward Auburn

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -11.5 · closed ALA -10.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel ALA -16.5

model ALA -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 41% (93 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (133 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -10.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 10.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 28–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 10.8; 59 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Very close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	63–17	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WWLWW	7-4	64%	3-0	4-0
ALA LWWWL	6-5	55%	4-2	5-5

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UUUOO	5-6	45%	5-6
ALA UUUOU	6-5	55%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ALA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AUB 0–1 ALA ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Alabama 27 @ Auburn 24	ALA -13.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+7.1 →+8.7▲ 1.6#30

ALA+20.2 →+21.2▲ 1.0#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

AUB

Longer bar = better

ALA

#43

Offense

ALA better ▶

#23

#27

Defense

Even

#17

−1.0 #132

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.0 #9

64 plays #97

Pace

Even

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	AUB off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #59	17.5 #12	ALA
Yards / play	6.71 #12	4.76 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	−0.04 #10	ALA
Success rate	45% #39	38% #29	Even

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #18	20.7 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #15	4.78 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #25	+0.05 #43	Even
Success rate	46% #32	37% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.9 #43	7.5 #86	14.4 #64	7.6 #35	5.9 #103	13.5 #67
ALA allowed	2.0 #6	4.7 #13	6.7 #5	5.8 #75	5.0 #32	10.8 #41

ALA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	9.5 #9	9.6 #42	19.1 #18	6.9 #55	10.2 #13	17.1 #18
AUB allowed	4.6 #55	3.1 #4	7.7 #7	4.0 #27	8.1 #102	12.1 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.